Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
